(CNN)The first high-speed trains in Africa are flashing along the Atlantic coast of Morocco.
The
French-made double-decker TGVs are being tested ahead of the launch of a
flagship new line connecting Tangier with Morocco's economic capital
Casablanca in 2018.
The
new trains can reach speeds of 200 miles per hour. They will cut the
journey time between the two cities by more than half -- to just over
two hours. This is double the speed of South Africa's Gautrain, launched in 2012, which falls short of the criteria for high-speed rail.
The
$2 billion project has been in development for a decade, funded by the
governments of Morocco, France, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE.
King
Mohammed VI and the Moroccan government expect the trains to deliver
wealth and prestige for the country. But opponents claim they are an
expensive folly.
Speculate to accumulate
High-speed trains fit within a wider program of infrastructure spending in Morocco, including the world's largest solar power plant and several major ports, that is intended to stimulate a sluggish economy.
"The
Government is continuing its reforms and major investments to improve
the business climate and attract foreign investors," reported the
African Development Bank in its "Economic Outlook 2016" for Morocco.
The
Tangiers-Casablanca route is expected to generate a sharp increase in
passenger numbers that will boost tourism, support wider economic growth
in the cities, and recoup the investment on it.
"We
aim at six million passengers a year after three years of commercial
operation, instead of three million currently," said Mohamed Rabie
Khlie, director general of national rail operator ONCF, in a recent
interview with Le Monde.
"This should enable us to achieve an operating margin that far exceeds
that of conventional trains and will justify the development."
The
director general went on to add that growing passenger numbers had
caused "saturation of the network," making the new line a necessity.
He denied that an upgraded service would lead to high costs for passengers.
"We
will run trains intended for Moroccans and thus adapted to the
purchasing power of Moroccans," said Khlie. "We do not want a train
reserved for high-end customers."
Risk and reward
The new trains carry risks as well as rewards, according to Zouhair Ait Benhamou, an economic analyst at the Financia Business School in France.
"The
ONCF business model is based on the French model in which trains are
heavily subsidized," he says. "If the number of passengers does not
materialize in two to three years, the government will have to provide
subsidies."
The government will hope to stimulate new economic activity in areas along the route, according to the analyst.
"I
suspect there are some places the government wants to develop as new
tourist areas," says Benhamou. "They could also attract an automaker to
build a facility. Peugeot is thinking about creating a plant in Kenitra, and if the high speed train goes through this city it would create a logistics hub for them."
The
new train line will impress foreign investors but they are likely to
remain wary of Morocco, according to Riccardo Fabiani, a senior analyst
at the Eurasia Group.
"If you are a
businessman deciding to install an operation in Africa and you are torn
between Morocco and another country, this kind of modern world-class
infrastructure could help tip the balance," he says. "But there are
other problems with the domestic economy."
Fabiani
cites poor governance and corruption as major concerns, as well as
"human capital" issues such as a severely under-performing education system. These issues reflect the priorities of a government which is comfortable with uneven development, he believes.
"The
current authorities are replicating the colonial model of looking at
some areas like Tangier and Casablanca but forgetting the rest of
country," says the analyst. "So there is world class infrastructure in
one area and untarred roads in others."
Not all aboard
Such disparities have fueled the "Stop TGV" campaign, a coalition of activists arguing that the investment could be better used for failing public services.
"Morocco
is a poor country and the top priority should be education," says Omar
Balafraj, a leader campaigner and member of parliament for the
Federation of the Democratic Left party.
Balafraj
tells a joke that he feels captures the folly of the project: "A man
meets a homeless man who is almost naked, and asks him what he needs. He
answers: 'only a ring.'"
But despite such reservations, the project is almost certainly too far advanced now to be stopped in its tracks.
The high-speed Tangier to Casablanca service will soon be welcoming its first passengers.
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