Technology is advancing so rapidly that we will
experience radical changes in society not only in our lifetimes but in
the coming years. We have already begun to see ways in which computing,
sensors, artificial intelligence and genomics are reshaping entire
industries and our daily lives.
1. Anything that can be digitized will be.
Digitization began with words and numbers. Then
we moved into games and later into rich media, such as movies, images
and music. We also moved complex business functions, medical tools,
industrial processes and transportation systems into the digital realm.
Now, we are digitizing everything about our daily lives: our actions,
words and thoughts. Inexpensive DNA sequencing and machine learning
are unlocking the keys to the systems of life. Cheap, ubiquitous
sensors are documenting everything we do and creating rich digital
records of our entire lives.
2. Your job has a significant chance of being eliminated.
In every field, machines and robots are beginning
to do the work of humans. We saw this first happen in the Industrial
Revolution, when manual production moved into factories and many
millions lost their livelihoods. New jobs were created, but it was a
terrifying time, and there was a significant societal dislocation (from
which the Luddite movement emerged).
3. Life will be so affordable that survival won’t necessitate having a job.
Note how cellphone minutes are practically free
and our computers have gotten cheaper and more powerful over the past
decades. As technologies such as computing, sensors and solar energy
advance, their costs drop.
Life as we know it will become radically cheaper. We are already seeing
the early signs of this: Because of the improvements in the shared-car
and car-service market that apps such as Uber enable, a whole generation
is growing up without the need or even the desire to own a car. Health
care, food, telecommunications, electricity and computation will all
grow cheaper very quickly as technology reinvents the corresponding
industries.
4. Your fate and destiny will be in your own hands as never before.
The benefit of the plummet in the costs of living
will be that the technology and tools to keep us healthy, happy,
well-educated and well-informed will be cheap or free. Online learning in virtually any field is already free. Costs also are falling with mobile-based medical devices.
We will be able to execute sophisticated self-diagnoses and treat a
significant percentage of health problems using only a smartphone and
smart distributed software.
5. Abundance will become a far bigger problem than poverty.
With technology making everything cheaper and
more abundant, our problems will arise from consuming too much rather
than too little. This is already in evidence in some areas, especially
in the developed world, where diseases of affluence — obesity, diabetes,
cardiac arrest — are the biggest killers. These plagues have quickly
jumped, along with the Western diet, to the developing world as well.
Human genes adapted to conditions of scarcity are woefully unprepared
for conditions of a caloric cornucopia. We can expect this process only
to accelerate as the falling prices of Big Macs and other products our
bodies don’t need make them available to all.
Human beings have evolved to manage tasks serially rather than simultaneously. The significant degradation of our attention spans and precipitous increase in attention-deficit problems that we have already experienced are partly attributable to spreading our attention too thin. As the number of data inputs and options for mental activity continues to grow, we will only spread it further. So even as we have the tools to do what we need to, forcing our brains to behave well enough to get things done will become more and more of a chore.
6. Distinction between man and machine will become increasingly unclear.
The controversy over Google Glass showed that
society remains uneasy over melding man and machine. Remember those
strange-looking glasses that people would wear, that were recording
everything around them? Google discontinued these because of the uproar,
but miniaturized versions of these will soon be everywhere. Implanted
retinas already use silicon to replace neurons. Custom prosthetics that
operate with the help of software are personalized, highly specific
extensions of our bodies. Computer-guided exoskeletons are going into
use in the military in the next few years and are expected to become a
common mobility tool for the disabled and the elderly.

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