Bold Winter Meetings Predictions
You never know what's going to happen at
the Winter Meetings. But in an odd twist this year, we didn't know if
the Winter Meetings were even going to happen. The prolonged process of
the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations made it unclear whether
club executives would actually report to National Harbor, Md., for
baseball's annual industry gathering.
Thankfully,
the CBA is complete, and we can now plan on the usual round of rumors,
rumblings and results next week. And so I present to you my annual bold*
predictions, with the annual caveat that we'll be lucky if even half
these deals get done (and I'd be blown away if I got even half of them
right).
*Admittedly, some of these
predictions are bolder than others. But every one of them is written in
bold, so no jury could convict me of false advertising.
Chris Sale traded to the Nationals
For my money, Sale is this Winter
Meetings' biggest name, so it's only fitting that the "host" team, as it
were, would make the biggest splash by landing him.
By now, you know the drill, right? The
White Sox don't have to trade Sale, but, given the conditions in this
market, they just might -- and maybe even probably/possibly should.
There are a number of young, controllable
players who would move the needle on a Sale swap. Guys like Julio
Urias, Alex Bregman, Rougned Odor, Dansby Swanson and the Nats' own Trea
Turner. But how realistic is that?
I think it's more likely for the Sox to
get a package centered around some instant rotation options (I'm talking
here about Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez) while sending Sale to a
win-now ballclub with a history of strengthening an already stout
rotation and a glaring organizational need to not only get back to
October, but actually advance within it, for once.
Edwin Encarnacion signs with the Yankees
The Encarnacion contract -- wherever he
lands -- is probably coming down very soon, now that the Yoenis Cespedes
domino has fallen.
The Blue Jays could still bring him back, and Encarnacion's agent said earlier this week that they're "showing Edwin the most love." But
while nobody's claiming Justin Smoak is an ideal first-base solution,
the fact that the Jays extended him like five minutes ago, in addition
to signing Kendrys Morales, makes you wonder if the love is as strong as
stated.
The Astros are still in on E.E. and are a good fit. The Red Sox are not as good a fit, no matter David Ortiz's past public sentiments. Maybe some National League team will shock us and stick him at first base, but I doubt it (prove me wrong, Rockies!).
Predicting the Yankees will spend a bunch
of money on an aging slugger used to be a really lame prediction. But
they didn't sign any free agents a year ago and are generally going
younger, so I guess it counts as reasonably bold. The fact is, the
Yankees just have too many DH/1B types at their disposal not to come
away with one of the bats available in a market deep on sluggers. So why
not get the best one still available?
(Seriously, though, it would be fun if he went to the Rockies.)
Andrew McCutchen traded to the Dodgers
This one is totally wishful thinking.
Because every time I think about the increasing likelihood of the
Pirates trading McCutchen, I get irrationally sad. Not because I'm a
Pirates fan (I'm not), but because I think of these two kids and their
dad, who became the stars of a viral video that quite simply never gets
old:
But here's the silver lining, folks: The
family in that video IS FROM LOS ANGELES. So if there's one swap
scenario that would appease them, it's this one. And the Dodgers, who
could dangle Jose De Leon as the heart of a deal, absolutely have the
prospects and the lineup need to get it done, as discussed in this rundown of teams in the McCutchen market.
Aroldis Chapman signs with the Astros
Look, if you're putting money on
Chapman's final destination, the Bronx is still your safest bet. Or
maybe he and Dusty Baker reunite. But we're (occasionally) trying to be
bold here! And man, could you imagine the left-handed Chapman in that
Astros bullpen?
Well, OK, you don't have to imagine it,
because lefty Kevin Chapman has pitched 55 relief innings for them over
the last four seasons.
But signing this Chapman would be the
most extreme way in the world to land the left-handed help the 'Stros
need. Obviously, you don't sign Chapman to be your lefty-on-lefty
matchup guy in the seventh, but the Astros could make Chapman and Ken
Giles a high-octane late-inning tandem. You naturally defer to Chapman
as the primary closer in that scenario, but with the way bullpen roles
are evolving and with a guaranteed contract in hand, perhaps there could
be opportunities to give Chapman the Andrew Miller treatment.
In a perfect world, the Astros would add a
front-line starter -- and there has been some speculation that they're
loading up on veteran bats to free themselves up to move young bats in a
trade for such an arm. But putting together a super 'pen is a way for
the Astros to take some of the pressure off an iffy rotation.
Dexter Fowler signs with the Blue Jays
We can now say with reasonable confidence
that Fowler won't be returning to the Cubs, who signed Jon Jay this
week to pair with Albert Almora in a center-field platoon. So what's
next for Mr. "You Go, We Go" in the wake of a weird 2015-16 free agency
and a leadoff homer in the Game 7 win?
The Blue Jays need an outfielder, and
Fowler … let me look ... yep, Fowler plays the outfield. They need a
leadoff hitter, and Fowler's .393 OBP last year was 60 points higher
than what they got from their leadoff men. They need speed, and Fowler
ranked eighth in FanGraphs' baserunning metric this season. They need
better lineup balance, and Fowler is a switch-hitter.
Jarrod Dyson traded to the Cardinals
Meanwhile, a Cardinals team that also has
a center-field need does the sort of thing the Cardinals tend to do,
making a smart move and not necessarily one that wows you.
The Cards really need speed, defense,
athleticism, and they need somebody to bridge the gap to top position
player prospect Harrison Bader. Dyson fits the bill on every front. He
is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility before he becomes a
free agent, and though he is undoubtedly important to the Royals, he
also presents them with an opportunity to shed some salary in the name
of adding some long-term upside from the Cards' solid system.
The Royals do have right-field depth in
the form of Whit Merrifield and Billy Burns, and they've got reserve
speed in Terrance Gore. They can make it work, and Dyson can zip on over
to the other side of Missouri, where he'd be an effective platoon
partner with Tommy Pham.
Carlos Beltran signs with the Red Sox
Whoever fills Ortiz's role will have to
answer incessant questions about that responsibility from a media
contingent that has exasperated plenty of players past. We know enough
about Beltran at this late stage of his career to know that is a
non-factor for him, and we know he wants badly to win a World Series
before he hangs 'em up.
The Red Sox would be a safe play on his
part, a team with a ton of talent both young and established that will
almost certainly be in the AL East mix down the stretch. And their need
not only to replace Big Papi but add some balance to a
right-handed-heavy lineup makes the switch-hitting Beltran an obvious
fit.
Justin Turner stays put with the Dodgers
Creativity is not in short supply this
time of year, so teams could certainly get creative with their infield
alignments -- or Turner's role -- to make room for the bearded,
redheaded one. But if you look at the spectrum of contenders
objectively, it seems Turner picked a bad year to be a good free agent.
There just aren't many glaring hot corner needs at the moment. (It would
be funny if the Mets wound up in pursuit of the guy they non-tendered
at the end of '13, but you have to imagine they'll continue to defer to
David Wright for now.)
Turner might be the best total-package
position player left in this market, but the lack of demand at his
position -- even more than his age (32) and lack of long track record as
an everyday guy -- leads me to believe he'll stay where he's still
needed and valued, and I think he'd be wise to move reasonably quickly.
And for the record, I think Rich Hill and
Kenley Jansen will wind up staying with the Dodgers, too. But we've
already got enough L.A. activity here for one week.
Ivan Nova signs with the Mariners
Wherever Nova signs, the conversation should go something like this…
General Manager: Ivan, do you pinky swear
that you'll pull a J.A. Happ and go from unheralded midseason Pirate
pickup to late-season Ray Searage-aided out-compiler to free agent to
borderline Cy Young Award contender?
Nova: Uh … sure.
GM: OK, here's your three-year, $40 million contract.
Bad, location-themed jokes on social media
If Wikipedia is to be believed (and when is it not?), this is the first time the Winter Meetings are taking place in the D.C. area since 1958.
This is tremendously exciting for those
of us all-too-well-accustomed to the regulars in the rotation (Orlando,
Nashville and Dallas) and an opportunity to litter Twitter with a fresh
batch of groan-worthy gags. I'll go ahead and get us started.
Teams on the lookout for a veteran bench presence should check out Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Yoenis Cespedes' salary is so large, he's going to need his own Secretary of the Treasury.
When Wilson Ramos signs with a new team, maybe he and Obama can share a moving truck.
If the Braves add any more old guys, they'll have to play their home games in the Smithsonian Museum.
Rich Hill's the best free-agent starter available? You're about to acquire a lot of capital, Hill.
Boy, if you think the legislative process is slow, you ought to see the service at the lobby bar.
(Sorry.)
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